The Altcoin Season Index — which measures what percentage of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days — has risen to 72 out of 100. A reading above 75 is traditionally considered the threshold of a true altcoin season. Are we on the verge of one of the most anticipated phases in the crypto market cycle?
What the Index Tells Us
At a reading of 72, the index indicates that a clear majority of major altcoins are already outperforming Bitcoin on a 90-day basis. This is consistent with the typical market structure at this stage of a bull cycle, where Bitcoin dominance peaks and capital begins rotating down the market cap spectrum in search of higher percentage returns.
Bitcoin Dominance: The Key Metric to Watch
Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalisation — its dominance — currently sits at 53.4%. In the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin dominance dropped from its peak of around 70% all the way to 40% as the altcoin season reached its peak. If history rhymes, the current level suggests meaningful upside remains for altcoins relative to Bitcoin if dominance continues its descent.
Which Sectors Are Leading the Rotation?
The clearest rotation so far has been into infrastructure tokens — particularly data availability networks, modular blockchain components, and AI-adjacent compute tokens. DeFi governance tokens have also seen strong relative performance as TVL across decentralised protocols recovers toward all-time highs. The layer-2 ecosystem on Ethereum has attracted significant developer and capital attention, benefiting tokens associated with major rollup networks.
Risk Factors
Altcoin seasons can reverse sharply. Because altcoins are more thinly traded than Bitcoin, a sudden risk-off event can trigger larger percentage declines in altcoins than in BTC. Maintaining appropriate position sizes, avoiding excessive leverage, and keeping some allocation in Bitcoin and stablecoins as a buffer are sensible risk management practices during this phase of the cycle.
