Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,000 following its fourth halving cycle. With institutional inflows through spot ETFs hitting record levels and on-chain fundamentals pointing to continued accumulation by long-term holders, the question is no longer whether BTC will reclaim its all-time high, but how far beyond it the current cycle will take us.
The Bull Case for $150,000
Several converging factors support a price target of $150,000 before year-end. First, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have now accumulated over 900,000 BTC — approximately 4.3% of the total supply — with net inflows continuing at a pace that has historically preceded price acceleration. Second, the post-halving supply shock is only now beginning to fully materialise in the order book, with miner revenue in BTC terms now 50% lower than it was six months ago. Third, the Federal Reserve has signalled two additional rate cuts before the end of 2026, which has historically been a tailwind for risk assets including crypto.
Technical Analysis
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has established a strong higher-low structure above the $90,000 support zone. The 20-week moving average is trending upward and has crossed above the 50-week moving average for the first time since the 2020-2021 bull cycle. The Relative Strength Index on the monthly timeframe remains in a healthy range, indicating momentum without the extreme overheating that typically precedes a major correction.
The Bear Case and Risk Factors
Any prediction carries risk, and a move to $150,000 is not guaranteed. A deterioration in macroeconomic conditions, a regulatory crackdown in major markets, or a significant security incident at a major exchange could all suppress price in the near term. The $115,000-$120,000 range represents a historically significant resistance zone where we may see meaningful profit-taking.
Our Assessment
We believe the probability of Bitcoin testing $150,000 by December 2026 sits at approximately 55-60%, contingent on continued ETF inflows and stable macro conditions. A more conservative target of $125,000-$130,000 has a higher probability of 75-80%.
This is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Always do your own research.
